Sweden Elections 2018 Betting Odds

The 2018 Swedish elections are scheduled for September 9, 2018. They will elect all 349 representatives in the Riksdag which will then elect the new Prime Minister of Sweden, a position currently held by Stefan Lovfen since 2014. Lovfen is seeking another term as Prime Minister and considering his party’s dominance at the Riksdag, most experts think that he’ll continue as Prime Minister.

The Riksdag is the main decision-making body in Swedish politics. It has 349 (175 needed for majority) members elected by the people through elections held every 4 years. The Riksdag’s seat is in the Parliament House in Stockholm. It is a bicameral legislature with an upper and lower chamber. Since 2014, the Riksdag is dominated by Prime Minister’s Stefan Lovfen’s party, the Social Democratic Party which has 113 seats. Ulf Kristersson’s Moderate Party is next with 83 seats, with the Sweden Democrats led by Jimmie Akesson having the third highest number of representatives in the Riksdag with 42. The Green Party which is in coalition with the Social Democrats and forms the incumbent Lovfen Cabinet has 25 seats in the Riksdag, while the Centre and Left Party have 22 and 21 respectively.

The Social Democrats, the Moderate Party and the Sweden Democrats are the 3 biggest political parties in Sweden. The Social Democratic Party has dominated Sweden’s national politics with plurality or even majority since the Great Depression. The Moderate Party was the ruling party of Sweden between 2006 and 2014. The Moderate party and 3 more parties are part of a coalition called The Alliance which is seeking a return to power after losing the elections to the Social Democrats in 2014.

The Sweden Democrats made a great jump from 29 to 49 seats in the 2014 elections, which has instantly made them the third biggest political party in Sweden. Led by a charismatic leader in Akesson, the Democrats might be a surprise in the upcoming elections and snatch a few more seats in the Riksdag which will further strengthen their positions.

Social Democrat Party

Stefan Lovfen

With 113 seats in the Riksdag, the Social Democrat Party will be looking to increase the number or avoid losing any seats in the upcoming elections. Led by current Prime Minister Stefan Lovfen, who is said to be looking re-election, the Social Democrat Party is the biggest party in Sweden and once again the favourite for the 2018 elections.

Experts agree that Lovfen is most likely bound for another term as Prime Minister, and the odds at bookies certainly reflect it. The Social Democrats are top of the list of favourites in the Winning Party\Coalition by Percentage of Votes market, with odds of 20/27 at Ole777, Fun88, and SportPesa, and 3/4 at LV BET and EnergyBet. This puts them in pole position for a high number of seats in the Riksdag, although punters won’t find the odds appealing.

Some bookies also offer other markets for the 2018 Swedish elections. For example, the Social Democrats lead in the battle vs. the Moderate Party in the Most Votes market, with odds of 20/67 vs. 2/1 at Fun88, Ole777, and SportPesa. On the other hand, they are an underdog in the head-to-head Most Votes market versus the Sweden Democrats, being given odds of 20/23, compared to the 4/5 odds given to Akesson’s party.

Still, it’s clear that Lovfen’s party is looking to dominate the elections once more. The competition this year, however, will be really tough, as the Sweden Democrats have gained a lot of followers in the past few years and are becoming the Social Democrats’ biggest opponent.

Sweden Democrats

With the rise of nationalism across Europe in the past decade, the Sweden Democrats party saw a sharp rise in support. With other parties in the Riksdag repeatedly refusing to cooperate with Akesson’s party, the Democrats advertised themselves as ‘the only opposition party’ after the 2014 budget crisis, which brought them thousands of new supporters. As a result, they won 20 seats more in the 2014 elections, strengthening their positions and getting even more support in the coming years, which makes them a big favourite for the 2018 elections.

The Democrats are breathing down the Social Democrats’ neck, with Fun88, SportPesa, LV BET, EnergyBet, and Ole777 giving them odds of 4/5. This puts them very close to the Social Democrat Party and makes them a surprising favourite. If Akesson manages to take new seats, and experts widely expect him to do so or his party ends up winning the election, the Swedish political landscape will undergo a dramatic change.

From a punter’s point of view, the Sweden Democrat’s odds are just as unappealing as the Social Democrat odds, so if you’re looking to make some money, you should be looking elsewhere.

Moderate Party

The second largest party in the Riksdag, the Moderate Party, is a part of a coalition named The Alliance which also includes the Christian Democrats, Centre Party, and Liberal Party. The Moderate Party has enjoyed dominance in the Riksdag from 2006-2014, but since then, their power has faded. With the rise of support for the Sweden Democrats, the Moderate Party has started losing followers, with even bookies placing them behind Akesson’s party for the 2018 elections.

The Moderate Party is currently third on the list of favourites with odds of 9/2 at Ole777, Fun88, and SportPesa, and 5/1 at EnergyBet and LV BET. They are also the underdog in the H2H Most Votes market against the Social Democrats, being given odds of 2/1 (vs. 20/67) at SportPesa, Ole777, and Fun88.

When it comes to the percentage of votes the Moderate Party might get, bookies can’t separate their Over 21% and Under 21% chances – SportPesa, Ole777, and Fun88 have the Moderate Party at 4/5 for Over 21% and 10/11 for the other option.

Can Anyone Surprise the Three Biggest Parties?

Besides the three major parties, bookies don’t believe any of the other parties stand a shot at winning the 2018 Sweden Elections. Right after the Moderate Party’s odds of 9/2 (5/1), the chances take a strong dip. The Centre Party has odds of 250/1 at Fun88, Ole777, and SportPesa, and fares even worse at EnergyBet and LV BET, where they’re being given odds of 300/1.

Things aren’t much better for the Left or Green Party, with odds of 300/1 and 1000/1 respectively. These parties will most likely look to form a coalition with the major parties in order to get seats in the Riksdag, as they can’t sway the public opinion in their direction on their own.